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SPC MD 1108

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Mesoscale Discussion 1108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 172230Z - 180000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Numerous storms across eastern Colorado will pose a
transient threat of severe hail and wind. Relatively limited storm
organization and short duration of the remaining threat makes watch
issuance unlikely.

DISCUSSION...At 2225Z, numerous strong thunderstorms are ongoing
across eastern CO, with the most severe storm approaching Pueblo, CO
with a threat for severe hail and wind (a 60 kt gust was recorded at
2219 UTC at KPUB). The environment across this region is generally
characterized by steep lapse rates, moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg in areas undisturbed by convection), and marginal
effective shear in the 20-30 kt range. The weak shear has tended to
limit the longevity of the severe threat with any one particular
storm, though new development will pose a threat for isolated large
hail within the first hour or so of initiation, and locally severe
outflow winds will be possible with collapsing updrafts and also
with any brief upscale growth from storm mergers. The greatest
threat for the next 1-2 hours may be in an area surrounding Limon
and Fort Morgan, CO, where converging outflows may result in a brief
uptick in storm coverage and intensity before a definitive weakening
trend occurs this evening. 

Due to the relatively limited storm organization and duration of the
remaining threat, watch issuance is considered unlikely.

..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40500394 40600358 40960217 38810205 37790222 37300263
            37070342 37130411 37610462 38520475 39500481 40040468
            40350426 40500394 

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