FXUS62 KTAE 210711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
311 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Mid level ridge axis will stretch from the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface flow will be
weak but overall direction will be southeasterly. This will promote
convection developing on the seabreeze late morning and especially
in the afternoon moving north and northwest. PoP chances will be
around average with widespread 40% and the highest chances from
Madison and Tallahassee northwestward into southeast Alabama at
50%. High temperatures today will be in the lower 90s and heat
indices in the lower 100s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

The diurnal seabreeze circulation will continue to bring scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area through the end
of the work week. Low level flow will remain southeasterly on
Thursday, then become more southerly on Friday as the ridge builds
westward. The highest PW values should remain to our west both
days, so we expect the highest coverage of storms to be in our FL
Panhandle and southeast AL zones both days. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

A pretty typical summertime pattern with seabreeze driven
convection will continue into next week. The area should see the
highest coverage in storms Sunday through Tuesday when rich
moisture returns to the area. Highs will continue to be mostly in
the upper 80s to low 90s and lows mostly in the low 70s.


[Through 06Z Thursday]

Have added some MVFR cig/vsbys at most locations as new guidance is
showing some possibility of patchy fog and/or low cigs overnight
through mid morning. VFR conds afterwards. Towards the afternoon,
seabreeze convection will begin to develop and work north and west
from the coast. Each terminal has a chance to experience convection
with TLH/DHN/ECP having the highest chance. Kept PROB30 for now and
will reassess on the 12Z issuance for timing.



Light winds and low seas will continue outside of thunderstorms
for the next week. Chances for storms will peak in the late night
and early morning hours.



Aside from low dispersions today, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not expected over the next several days.



A more typical summertime pattern of scattered seabreeze
thunderstorms is expected to continue for the next week, with no
threat for widespread flooding. However, both the Econfina and
Steinhatchee rivers remain in flood stage from the recent heavy
rainfall- the Steinhatchee has crested and the Econfina is
currently cresting. Both will see water levels gradually lower
over the next few days.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   92  74  91  74  93 /  50  10  40  10  30
Panama City   88  75  87  76  88 /  40  20  40  10  30
Dothan        91  72  91  72  90 /  40  10  50  10  40
Albany        91  74  93  74  92 /  40  10  30  10  30
Valdosta      90  73  92  74  92 /  30  10  30  10  30
Cross City    90  74  92  74  92 /  30  20  20  10  20
Apalachicola  88  77  87  76  87 /  30  20  30  10  30




NEAR TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Nguyen

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion