000
FXUS62 KTAE 170054
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
754 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.UPDATE...

It looks like marine fog is beginning to develop near the coast.
Farther inland fog will develop shortly after midnight. No
significant changes to the forecast for tonight with the evening
update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [650 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Some scattered showers will continue through this afternoon as a
weakening cold front stretches out and becomes draped along the
northern portions of the CWA. Southerly flow along the coast will
continue to keep moisture elevated, this along with weakening winds
overnight will set up favorable conditions for widespread patchy and
areas of dense fog overnight into Sunday morning. Any additional
rain tonight should be limited to the northern most portions of the
CWA. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer than last night, staying
in the lower 60s for most areas, slightly cooler to the north and
the warmer temps being along the western panhandle. This is notably
around 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year for most of
the CWA.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

The short term period begins with a flat ridge across the Southern
Gulf of Mexico and a shortwave moving through the Ohio River
Valley as part of a larger scale trough across the Western/Central
US. As the ridge to the south amplifies and lifts northward this
will force an approaching storm system to move well to the north
of our region, leaving only a weak cold front to drift into the
forecast area on Monday afternoon and then stall over the area on
Monday night.

With a modest warm advective regime ahead of the cold front on
Sunday afternoon there should be enough forcing to generate
scattered showers, and have included 30-40 PoPs in the forecast.

Overnight Sunday into Monday, as the cold front approaches, will
keep PoPs highest in the northern half of the forecast area and
then show a decreasing trend as any deep layer forcing diminishes
considerably with the shortwave moving rapidly into New England.

Temperatures prior to the frontal passage will be much above
normal, with afternoon highs only in the mid to upper 70s. After
the frontal passage, some cooler air will work its way mainly into
our northern zones on Monday, but this will be fairly short lived.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

With the large mid level ridge oriented across the Florida Straits
and out into the Western Atlantic, this will keep a fairly
consistent SW to NE storm track across the Central and Eastern
CONUS and keep a series of storm systems just to our north through
the long term period.

The stationary boundary across the forecast area at the start of
the period will lift quickly northward Tuesday night in response
to surface cyclogenesis across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
As this storm system then moves quickly up into the Tennessee
Valley and into the Mid Atlantic, our region will be in fairly
strong deep layer southerly flow and with most of the forcing for
precip staying back to the north and west, low end PoPs at best
look in the offing for the bulk of the week. Additionally after
Wednesday, very warm temperatures are expected, with the
possibility of highs in the 80s should some of the cloud cover
scatter in the afternoon.

The next storm system will organize by Friday west of the region,
but should generally only affect the far western portion of our
area before lifting north on Saturday ahead of a much deeper
northern stream trough. The period will end on Saturday with
continued warmer than normal temperatures.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

Fog will develop shortly after midnight. 1/2 mile vis or less is
possible until mid to late morning when conditions improve to MVFR.
Southerly winds will be moderate with gusts up to 20 knots possible
in the afternoon.


.MARINE...

Areas of fog will develop over the marine area tonight. Winds and
seas will begin to increase over the marine area Monday as a
frontal boundary moves over the waters. A brief period of advisory
levels winds is possible on Monday night. Thereafter, winds will
decrease and shift to southerly by Wednesday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than the potential for high dispersions on Sunday, particularly
north of I-10, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
over the next several days, given a moist weather pattern. Widespread
fog is possibly tonight into Sunday morning.


.HYDROLOGY...

While low end rain chances return to the forecast this weekend
into next week, the rainfall amounts across the area will be
light, generally below one inch. There is the potential for
amounts around one inch northwest of the Flint River and north
of I-10. Main focus will be to watch the rivers once the rain
that falls north of the area next week works its way south.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   61  77  64  73  57 /  10  30  30  30  20
Panama City   64  73  64  69  59 /  10  30  30  30  20
Dothan        61  77  60  65  54 /  10  30  50  30  20
Albany        59  76  62  67  54 /  20  30  40  40  20
Valdosta      60  77  64  72  56 /  10  20  30  30  20
Cross City    61  78  64  78  60 /  10  20  20  30  20
Apalachicola  62  71  64  71  60 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Humphreys

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion