905
FXUS64 KMOB 142205
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
405 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Models similar in moving a large
upper level low pressure area over central Louisiana this afternoon
northeast across central Mississippi tonight and on into eastern
Tennessee by the end of the day on Saturday. Occluded surface low
will follow similar track. With the cold pool aloft and strong
mid/upper level forcing associated with the upper low, widespread
cloudiness is expected to continue across the region tonight and
through much of the day on Saturday. There could still be a brief
isolated convective shower, and more likely a slight chance of off
and on light rain or drizzle through the near term period, but
primarily free of any significant precipitation. Cool and drier
conditions, with dewpoint temperatures falling into the 40s across
most of the area tonight into Saturday as low level wind flow shifts
from southerly to more westerly. Low temperatures tonight in the mid
and upper 40s over all of the interior, lower 50s near and along the
immediate coast. On Saturday, with continued mostly cloudy skies
high temperatures expected to range from mid to upper 50s over most
of the interior to the lower 60s near and along the coast.  12/DS

.SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...An occluded system
located over eastern parts of the Tennessee River Valley
continues to move off towards the northeast. Low level moisture
wrapping around the system will keep skies mostly cloudy over the
forecast area well into Sunday. Lows Saturday night are expected
to fall to around seasonal levels as a bit cooler airmass moving
over the forecast area is tempered by the cloud cover. Around 40
to the low 40s are expected for lows. With the area seeing more
sun Sunday, temperatures are expected to rise from Saturday, but
remain just below seasonal norms. Highs around 60 to low 60s
expected.

Sunday night into Monday, a shortwave trough moves into an upper
trough that has developed in the wake of the exiting system, sending
a re-enforcing front across the area Sunday night into Monday. A
mainly drier airmass moves over the forecast area, moving out any
residual cloud cover. With better overnight radiational cooling
Sunday and Monday nights, lows dropping to the upper 30s to low
40s are expected. Highs Monday in the low to mid 60s expected,
with sunny skies and a drier airmass allowing for better daytime
heating.

/16

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Tuesday through Wednesday,
shortwave energy digs an upper trough over the Plains. Surface
high pressure quickly shifts east over the Southeast in response,
bringing return flow off the Gulf of Mexico to areas just west of
the forecast area. Temperatures increase into Tuesday, but with
increasing mid/upper level cloud cover will limit any temperature
increases Wednesday with the increasing return flow. Highs in the
low to mid 60s expected each day, with lows Tuesday night ranging
from around 40 inland to upper 40s along the coast.

Wednesday night through Thursday, the Plains upper trough swings
east of the Mississippi River. Guidance continues to paint
differing pictures in the handling of system, and with this package,
a bit later time frame of occurrence. The ECMWF is advertising a
closed low developing over the Southern Plains and moving east
over the Southeast; the GFS is advertising an open wave. Both are
advertising decent mid/upper jet dynamics passing, but also
consistent in advertising any surface based instability remaining
well south of the coast as the system passes. Have put some
thunder in the forecast Wednesday night south of the coast, but
have kept land areas thunder-free for now.

Thursday night through Friday, cooler, drier air moves over the
forecast area behind a frontal passage early Thursday night.
Temperatures below seasonal expected.

&&

.MARINE...A moderate to strong southwest flow over the marine area
tonight will become more western early on Saturday and begin to
diminish somewhat by late Saturday. High seas and rough conditions
will gradually begin to subside by late Saturday as well. A light to
moderate northwest to northerly flow is expected late Saturday and
will continue into the early part of next week. A few showers
tonight and Saturday night, with rainfree conditions then expected
through most of the remainder of the forecast period. By late
Wednesday winds likely to become more easterly, especially over the
Gulf waters, with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms
returning to the marine area. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      47  59  42  61  40  65  41  65 /  20  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   51  60  45  62  42  63  44  63 /  20  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Destin      55  61  48  61  46  64  47  63 /  30  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   48  58  43  60  38  65  40  64 /  20  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  46  56  40  59  37  63  39  63 /  20  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      46  57  42  58  37  62  39  62 /  20  10  10   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   49  62  43  63  39  67  40  64 /  30  10  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion