FXUS64 KMOB 172047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
347 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday/...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue over the local area through this evening
before tapering off after sunset as instability wanes. A more
widespread coverage in thunderstorms is currently ongoing just to
our west, driven by a series of weak disturbances embedded within an
unsettled upper-level southwesterly flow pattern over the lower
Mississippi River Valley. This upper pattern spreads east across the
Deep South and southeastern states tonight into Tuesday, bringing
with it better large-scale ascent and increasing rain chances.

Thunderstorms likely push through the area in waves on Tuesday, the
first of which will be focused along a remnant outflow boundary or
decaying squall line/MCS over our southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama counties Tuesday morning. This first complex
pushes east into the Florida panhandle and south-central Alabama
counties during late morning and early afternoon hours, with some re-
intensification possible as daytime heating results in better
instability out ahead of it. Redevelopment will be possible across
the area in the wake of this first wave late Tuesday afternoon and
evening, aided by another passing disturbance in the upper-level
southwesterly flow. Intensity and coverage of this second wave will
depend heavily on how much instability can redevelop in the wake of
the first wave of storms, but at least a scattered coverage is
expected primarily over inland areas.

Lows tonight range from low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coast.
Temps on Tuesday will run a few degrees cooler than recent days due
to the greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms and broken to
overcast skies. Expect highs to reach the mid 80s for most areas,
except portions of south-central Alabama where breaks in the clouds
before the rain will allow some locations to climb into the upper
80s to around 90. /49

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Thursday night/...A moist low-
level onshore flow continues as surface high pressure continues to
ridge in from the west.  Aloft the region will remain on the
northern periphery of the subtropical ridge with a persistent
southwest to westerly flow prevailing aloft.  Minor shortwave
troughs will move through the longwave trough lying over
northeastern and Canada and across the southwestward states. These
impulses will continue to enhance convection developing during the
late morning and afternoon hours as instability increases along
lingering outflow and seabreeze boundaries.  Current guidance
indicates that vertical shear increases over the area late Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday as a stronger shortwave trough approaches
and moves across the region.  0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 20 to 30
knots are projected late Wednesday afternoon increasing to 25 to 35
knots on Thursday.  The increasing shear will help sustained
thunderstorm updrafts longer and lead to a greater risk of strong
and possibly severe thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon and again
on Thursday. The shear is expected to remain unidirectional so the
biggest threat from the strongest storms will be damaging straight
line winds and in the most intense updrafts nickel to quarter size
hail. The storms on Thursday should be heavy rain producers with
deep warm layer moisture and layer precipitable water amounts of
around two inches available.  The potential will exist for localized
flooding along poor drainages and urban areas.

Daytime high temperatures trend near to warmer than normal on
Wednesday. Increased cloud and precipitation coverage Thursday is
expected to keep afternoon temperatures near normal. Overnight
lows should continue to trend well above normal through Thursday
night. /08

.LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...Chances of afternoon convection
over the area is expected to trend lower Friday and into the weekend
as an upper level ridge builds over the north central Gulf region.
Mid to upper level subsidence will then help hinder the diurnally
driven convection.  Surface high pressure over the central Gulf will
keep an onshore low-level flow over the region keeping humidities
up and creating muggy conditions during the overnight and early
morning hours. Temperatures through the long term will trend
warmer than climatological norms. /08


.MARINE...High pressure east of the area will maintain a generally
light onshore flow and little change in seas through Tuesday.
Moderate to strong southwest flow and building seas are expected mid
to late week, producing SCEC conditions over unprotected Gulf waters
beginning Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through the end of the work week. /49


Mobile      74  87  74  92  76  90  76  92 /  30  60  40  40  10  70  30  30
Pensacola   76  86  76  90  78  89  78  90 /  20  60  40  40  20  70  30  30
Destin      77  84  78  89  79  87  79  88 /  20  50  50  50  20  60  30  30
Evergreen   73  88  73  95  75  90  74  93 /  20  60  30  40  10  70  30  30
Waynesboro  72  86  72  92  74  91  72  93 /  40  60  20  40  10  70  30  30
Camden      73  87  72  93  75  91  73  94 /  30  60  30  40  10  60  40  30
Crestview   72  87  73  93  75  89  74  92 /  20  60  50  40  20  70  30  30




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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion