000
FXUS64 KBMX 172059
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

A boundary across the southern part of the state is aiding
convection development with heating. Also, an upper shortwave
lobe is present to our west over AR/TX/LA. This lobe is sending
disturbances through the southwest flow into Central Alabama. With
southerly low level flow into the state, we have a warm, moist,
and unstable atmosphere to help storms ignite and sustain. CAPE is
not an issue for any storms that develop through sunset. A strong
storm or two is not out of the question. However, after sunset
our instability drops off with the loss of heating. Colliding
boundaries may sustain activity in the southeast half well into
the evening, but the remaining activity should be weakened.
Activity in the northwest more associated with the approaching
trough could last through the night. With high dew points and
lingering cloud cover, overnight temperatures should be mild
again, near to or a degree or so warmer than last night.

08

.LONG TERM...
/Issued at 425 AM CDT/

* Temperature ranges for the long-term remain consistent with
  afternoon highs topping out in the mid 80s to lower 90s,
  relatively typical values for this time of year. Overnight lows
  in the mid 60s to lower 70s are expected as the surface layer
  cools to values near their respective dewpoints.

* The potential for severe weather across Central Alabama exists on
  Thursday.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

Shortwave troughing will center across the Ohio Valley and Deep
South Tuesday morning, with a trajectory to the northeast as it
elongates and weakens with time. However, a plume of high PWs (1.8-
2.00") across Central Alabama along with remnant low-level confluent
boundaries will provide needed ingredients for numerous showers and
thunderstorms as the boundary layer destabilizes in the afternoon.
PoPs have been adjusted to 50-70% depending on location. A stronger
storm can`t be ruled out given SBCAPE ~2,000-2,500 J/kg, though
effective shear 

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion